Build Your Risk Model

Beta

Build your own risk model. Drag the sliders to change how much each factor matters, then see how your weights change the rankings — using our live data.

Factor Weights

Inflation

Inflation Rate

Annual consumer price inflation (CPI). Measures how fast prices are rising and purchasing power is eroding. Above 10% is concerning, above 50% indicates crisis.

Source: World Bank

13 · 14%

Debt/GDP

Debt-to-GDP

Government debt as a percentage of GDP. High debt limits fiscal flexibility and increases the temptation to print money, which devalues the currency.

Source: World Bank

9 · 10%

FX Volatility

Recent exchange rate movement against USD. Large swings signal market stress and make the currency unpredictable for citizens and businesses.

Source: Exchange Rate APIs

8 · 9%

Global Role

Global Currency Role

How embedded a currency is in the global financial system — reserve holdings, trade invoicing, FX turnover. Major currencies (USD, EUR) score low risk; domestic-only currencies score high.

Source: IMF COFER, BIS

8 · 9%

Capital Controls

How difficult it is to convert or move money out of this currency. Ranges from 0 (fully open, like USD) to 95 (completely closed, like North Korea). Thin FX markets amplify the risk.

Source: IMF AREAER, BIS

7 · 8%

FX Reserves

Reserve Adequacy

Foreign exchange reserves measured in months of import cover. Countries with low reserves cannot defend against speculative attacks or sudden capital outflows.

Source: World Bank

6 · 7%

Current Account

Current account balance as % of GDP — the net flow of trade and income with the rest of the world. Large deficits mean dependence on foreign capital, which can flee suddenly.

Source: World Bank

6 · 7%

Governance

Governance Quality

Rule of law, regulatory quality, and institutional effectiveness. Weak governance correlates with politicized monetary policy and less independent central banks.

Source: World Bank WGI

6 · 7%

GDP Growth

Annual real GDP growth rate. Economies in recession face rising deficits and pressure to debase the currency. Strong growth lowers risk.

Source: World Bank

5 · 5%

Bad Loans (NPL)

Non-Performing Loans

Bank non-performing loans as % of total loans. High NPL ratios signal banking stress that can trigger credit crunches, bank failures, and broader currency crises.

Source: World Bank

5 · 5%

Peg Fragility

Risk of a fixed exchange rate peg breaking. Only applies to hard pegs and currency boards (e.g. Hong Kong, Bahrain). Free-floating currencies always score 0. A peg holds until it breaks — violently.

Source: IMF AREAER

5 · 5%

Black Market

Black Market Premium

Gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel/black market rate. A premium above 10% means the official rate is a fiction — citizens cannot access foreign currency at the stated price.

Source: Curated dataset

4 · 4%

Military

Military Strength

How strong a country's military is relative to peers. Weak military capability can leave a country vulnerable to external pressure, sanctions enforcement, or territorial disputes — all of which can destabilize the currency. Not in the official model.

Source: Global Firepower, SIPRI

0 · 0%

Opacity Penalty

Data Opacity Penalty

Penalizes countries that don't report economic data. Countries hiding their numbers are almost always hiding bad news.

10 · 11%

Inflation: 14%Debt/GDP: 10%FX Volatility: 9%Global Role: 9%Capital Controls: 8%FX Reserves: 7%Current Account: 7%Governance: 7%GDP Growth: 5%Bad Loans (NPL): 5%Peg Fragility: 5%Black Market: 4%Opacity: 11%

50 countries · Sorted by your custom score (highest risk first)

#	Country	Ccy	Your Score	Level	Official	Diff
1	North Korea	KPW	100	Critical	65	+35
2	Turkmenistan	TMT	100	Critical	45	+55
3	Cuba	CUP	84	Critical	68	+16
4	Venezuela	VES	77	Critical	77	0
5	South Sudan	SSP	76	Critical	74	+2
6	Syria	SYP	76	Critical	69	+7
7	Sudan	SDG	71	High	71	0
8	Eritrea	ERN	68	High	67	+1
9	Iran	IRR	61	High	61	0
10	Lebanon	LBP	60	High	59	+1
11	Zimbabwe	ZWL	59	High	56	+3
12	Bolivia	BOB	57	High	57	0
13	Equatorial Guinea	XAF	57	High	57	0
14	Palestine	ILS	55	High	55	0
15	Yemen	YER	55	High	57	-2
16	Burundi	BIF	53	High	53	0
17	Argentina	ARS	51	High	53	-2
18	Myanmar	MMK	51	High	52	-1
19	Ukraine	UAH	51	High	51	0
20	Egypt	EGP	49	Moderate	51	-2
21	Malawi	MWK	49	Moderate	49	0
22	Suriname	SRD	49	Moderate	49	0
23	Haiti	HTG	48	Moderate	48	0
24	Dem. Rep. Congo	CDF	47	Moderate	47	0
25	Sierra Leone	SLE	47	Moderate	47	0
26	Afghanistan	AFN	46	Moderate	49	-3
27	Angola	AOA	46	Moderate	46	0
28	Ethiopia	ETB	46	Moderate	48	-2
29	Zambia	ZMW	46	Moderate	46	0
30	Chad	XAF	45	Moderate	45	0
31	Bangladesh	BDT	44	Moderate	46	-2
32	Liberia	LRD	44	Moderate	44	0
33	Mozambique	MZN	44	Moderate	45	-1
34	Nigeria	NGN	44	Moderate	46	-2
35	Colombia	COP	43	Moderate	43	0
36	Laos	LAK	43	Moderate	45	-2
37	Russia	RUB	43	Moderate	44	-1
38	Belarus	BYN	42	Moderate	44	-2
39	Ghana	GHS	42	Moderate	42	0
40	Madagascar	MGA	42	Moderate	42	0
41	Somalia	SOS	42	Moderate	44	-2
42	Kyrgyzstan	KGS	41	Moderate	41	0
43	Hungary	HUF	40	Moderate	40	0
44	Maldives	MVR	40	Moderate	39	+1
45	Mauritania	MRU	40	Moderate	40	0
46	Mexico	MXN	40	Moderate	40	0
47	Sri Lanka	LKR	40	Moderate	41	-1
48	Tajikistan	TJS	40	Moderate	40	0
49	Algeria	DZD	39	Moderate	39	0
50	Bhutan	BTN	39	Moderate	39	0

Custom scores use the same underlying data and normalization as the official FiatRisk model. Only the weights differ. The “Diff” column shows how your model diverges from the official score (positive = your model rates it riskier). This tool is for educational exploration — it does not constitute financial advice.