News
BBCSwinney defends food prices policy ahead of first minister vote·Economic TimesIndia fuel price hike among world's lowest: BJP·SCMPSome Asian airlines could collapse like Spirit without help on rising fuel costs·SCMPTexans accuse Japan of doing ‘deal with the devil’ by funding US fossil fuel projects·SCMPHong Kong property upswing poised to hold despite interest rates risk: Moody’s·SCMPCuba warns of ‘bloodbath’ if US attacks as Washington expands sanctions·NYTOil Prices Climb and Bonds Falter as Iran War Raises Inflation Fears·NYTG7 Finance Ministers Look to Contain Iran Economic Fallout·BBCSwinney defends food prices policy ahead of first minister vote·Economic TimesIndia fuel price hike among world's lowest: BJP·SCMPSome Asian airlines could collapse like Spirit without help on rising fuel costs·SCMPTexans accuse Japan of doing ‘deal with the devil’ by funding US fossil fuel projects·SCMPHong Kong property upswing poised to hold despite interest rates risk: Moody’s·SCMPCuba warns of ‘bloodbath’ if US attacks as Washington expands sanctions·NYTOil Prices Climb and Bonds Falter as Iran War Raises Inflation Fears·NYTG7 Finance Ministers Look to Contain Iran Economic Fallout·
← Back to Intelligence Dashboard
🇪🇷
ERN

Eritrean Nakfa

ERN · Eritrea

67
High
Risk
What does this mean for you?

The Eritrean Nakfa is under significant pressure, scoring 67 out of 100. This isn't a crisis yet, but things are moving in the wrong direction. If you're saving in this currency, you need to be paying attention — your purchasing power is being eroded.

You need at least 7.9%/yr returns. Money in a basic account is slowly losing value. Calculator ↓

Inflation
6.4%
Debt / GDP
211.0%
GDP Growth
8.7%
FX Volatility
Not available
Governance
-1.4
Reserves
0.8 mo
Analysis
What's working well
Economy is growing healthily
What to watch out for
Restrictions on moving your money out of the country
The official exchange rate doesn't match what people actually pay (100% gap)
Weak rule of law — harder to trust that the system will protect your money
Full Eritrea analysis →

Savings Impact Calculator

ERN
Holding cash in ERN6.4% inflation
ERN 733−ERN 267 (27% purchasing power lost)
Your ERN 1,000 buys 27% less in 5 years
What if you invested ERN 1,000 instead? (5yr, in ERN terms)
USD-denominated assets gain an additional ~3.4%/yr from expected ERN depreciation vs USD
Hold USD Cash
ERN 1020
+ERN 20
+0.4%/yr net in ERN
S&P 500
ERN 1875
+ERN 875
range: ERN 877–ERN 3628
10% USD return + 3.4% FX · ±16% vol
Gold
ERN 1716
+ERN 716
range: ERN 510–ERN 4551
8% USD return + 3.4% FX · ±24% vol
Bitcoin
ERN 3490
+ERN 2490
range: ERN 228–ERN 20.2k
25% USD return + 3.4% FX · ±54% vol

All values in ERN. USD-denominated assets (S&P 500, Gold, Bitcoin) include an estimated FX gain of ~3.4%/yr based on the inflation differential between Eritrea (6.4%) and the US (~3%). This uses purchasing power parity as a long-run approximation — actual FX movements can differ significantly in the short term. S&P 500 based on 1957-2024, Gold on 2000-2024, Bitcoin on 2015-2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.

Holding other assets too? Calculate your full portfolio risk →
This score is based on our 12-factor risk model. Think inflation or debt should matter more? Build your own model with custom weights and see how ERN ranks differently.
Intelligence DashboardCompare currenciesBuild your model